Data & Analytics — Capacity & Demand

Surgical hub optimisation: multi-site theatre and waiting list analytics

Modelling procedure-level demand across sixteen theatres on two sites to plan the activity transfers, theatre schedules and waiting list impact of a new off-site day surgical hub.

identified for transfer to the new hub: 115 hrs/wk
increase in day theatre weekly capacity: 2.0x
of inpatient waiters suitable for day surgery: 25%

The challenge

This university teaching hospital opened a two-theatre off-site day surgical hub, designed to work in tandem with its existing on-site day surgery unit (two theatres) and main theatre complex (twelve theatres).

To make the new facility count, the hospital needed to predict the activity transfers required between surgical locations, analyse theatre utilisation across all sixteen theatres, and forecast the waiting list improvement each transfer would deliver. New theatre schedules then had to reflect those transfers as part of the hospital's implementation plan.

The scope covered both emergency and elective activity across nine surgical specialties — a mix that makes demand notoriously difficult to measure with a single method.

Our approach

Encrypted procedure-level data was provided to a MedModus specification, and appropriate surgical locations were identified for every procedure. Separate approaches were developed to measure emergency and elective demand, with multiple-procedure cases and urgent elective activity factored in explicitly.

An allocation algorithm then assigned procedure-level demand to each surgical location, so the transfer question could be answered in hours of theatre time rather than in broad case counts.

In-session and session theatre utilisation was analysed for each specialty, and waiting list clearance forecasts were developed alongside it. Every element of the final analysis was validated with the perioperative directorate and individual specialties before it informed the schedule.

The solution

The data model identified 115 hours of theatre time per week — over 2 theatre equivalents — suitable for transfer to the new off-site facility, doubling day theatre weekly operating capacity, with a fifth of on-site theatre hours identified as suitable for relocation.

Sessions with low utilisation were surfaced, and variance between session allocation and actual utilisation was made visible specialty by specialty. That exposed multiple opportunities to re-allocate theatre time both within and across specialties on the basis of measured demand.

Waiting list clearance forecasts for priority specialties quantified the improvement available from the additional theatre time, and theatre demand, waiting list movement and utilisation were linked in a single view to inform the hospital's ongoing allocation strategy.

“MedModus had a detailed understanding of the various healthcare data sets needed to create this complex activity transfer model. The analysis supported the rationale for change and resource allocation to the appropriate level of surgical complexity. It also provides a baseline against which our team can track surgical hub implementation progress.”

Director of Lean Transformation, St James's Hospital

Theatre activity transfer — before and after

The allocation model translated procedure-level demand into weekly theatre hours for each surgical location, so the hospital could see exactly what would move, what would stay and what the new hub would carry.

Weekly operating hours by location

Location	Theatres	Current hrs/wk	Transfer out	Transfer in	New hrs/wk
Main theatre (on-site)	12	403	−60	+15	358
Day theatre (on-site)	2	88	−19	—	69
Day theatre (off-site — new)	2	—	—	+115	115
Total	16	491	−79	+130	542

Key finding

20% of on-site theatre weekly hours — over 2 theatre equivalents — were identified as suitable for relocation off-site, doubling day theatre weekly operating capacity, with 25% of inpatient waiters suitable for treatment in the new off-site day surgery hub.

Outcomes

What changed for the organisation once the platform was live.

115 hrs/wk
of theatre time identified for transfer — over 2 theatre equivalents
2.0x
increase in day theatre weekly operating capacity
20%
of on-site theatre weekly hours identified for off-site relocation
9 specialties
emergency and elective activity modelled
16 theatres
utilisation analysed across three locations
Priority specialties
waiting list clearance forecasts developed
Low-utilisation sessions
identified for re-allocation within and across specialties
Single view
linking theatre demand, waiting list movement and utilisation

Facing a similar challenge?

We will walk you through how this engagement was delivered and what the equivalent first phase would look like for your organisation.

More case studies